Prison population projections, England and Wales
The Ministry of Justice's projections of the prison population of England and Wales at the end of each September for the next four years, central, low and high, beside the actual population at the end of the September before.
Central projection, September 2029
99,600
Sep 2029 · low 97,400, high 102,100; the actual population at the end of September 2025 was 87,465
Verified against source, 8 November 2026, 13:36 UTC- Actual
- Central
- Low
- High
Source: Ministry of Justice. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Data table
5 periods, newest first
| Period | Actual | Central | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2029 | – | 99,600 | 97,400 | 102,100 |
| Sep 2028 | – | 97,400 | 95,700 | 99,200 |
| Sep 2027 | – | 94,700 | 93,500 | 96,200 |
| Sep 2026 | – | 91,400 | 91,100 | 92,200 |
| Sep 2025 | 87,465 | – | – | – |
Source and licence
- Publisher
- Ministry of Justice
- Check it yourself
- https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-ns
- Licence
- Open Government Licence v3.0 – Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
- Retrieved
- 8 November 2026, 13:16 UTC
- Raw files fetched
- https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-2025-to-2030SHA-256 013eda98aecad53ba3e8388dc993cb8ba4744bf5054da185eb7d207a599c7c1e · 19,581 bytes
- https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69300b510cf0b7e681ff414a/Prison_Projections_2025-2030_Tables1__2_.odsSHA-256 b89cbea3a7962093f8d8eddfb565944d54a4e6e7c982ccbcc13b4a235b0630b9 · 18,548 bytes
- https://www.gov.uk/api/content/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-nsSHA-256 34e7e9d325cd5e608cef3e83745e0df01ff966923c7451bbb55aebb98e56ef5d · 133,082 bytes
Verification
Verified against source, 8 November 2026, 13:36 UTC Run at 8 November 2026, 13:36 UTC; 20 of 20 figures matched the live source.
| Result | Check | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Pass | Provenance recorded | Ministry of Justice; Open Government Licence v3.0; retrieved 2026-11-08T13:16:46Z; 3 raw file(s) |
| Pass | Raw files match recorded SHA-256 | 3 of 3 files intact |
| Pass | Re-parsing raw files reproduces figures | 20 of 20 figures and the headline reproduced; the meta's accreditation and edition match |
| Pass | Figures are finite numbers | 20 figures, 0 invalid |
| Pass | Live source matches every figure | 20 of 20 figures match exactly after downloading 3 source file(s) again (3 byte-identical); the headline matches; the meta's accreditation and edition match |
| Pass | GOV.UK table is current | latest period 2025-09 ended 404 days before retrieval (limit 550), from Prison Population Projections 2025 to 2030: statistical tables |
| Pass | Table 3.1 gives Table 1.1's central projection | 4 of 4 figures match Table 3.1's 2025 to 2030 column, totals, which gives the actual September and the three after it |
| Pass | The actual population's parts add up to its total | 1 of 1 cases of Table 1.1's actual Septembers give parts that add up to the total |
| Pass | Each projection's parts come to its total | 12 of 12 cases of Table 1.1's projected Septembers give parts that come to the total within the 350 that rounding the total and each of its six parts to the nearest 50 or 100 allows within 350 (6 exactly) |
| Pass | The central projection lies between the low and the high | 4 of 4 cases of the projected Septembers give a central total between the low and the high |
| Pass | Source page answers | https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/prison-population-projections-ns – HTTP 200 |
Notes
- Projections, not counts: the central projection is the Ministry of Justice's main estimate of the population at the end of each September if its assumptions hold, and the low and high projections show other paths. Projected figures are rounded and their parts may not add up to the total. The actual population is the one on 30 September the edition began from.
- The Ministry of Justice publishes these as accredited official statistics.